* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 10/01/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 83 81 76 59 45 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 84 83 81 76 59 45 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 85 83 81 77 72 59 49 40 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 15 23 31 47 43 13 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 14 12 9 9 6 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 204 185 189 193 202 200 254 301 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 26.2 25.3 24.0 22.6 17.8 15.1 13.8 14.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 120 113 104 97 81 74 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 107 110 105 98 92 78 71 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -51.4 -51.3 -52.5 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.1 1.6 2.1 1.7 1.4 2.6 4.1 2.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 52 45 38 40 42 51 47 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 46 45 46 47 46 42 43 44 30 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 78 72 81 78 85 130 117 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 107 95 125 159 145 77 81 24 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 36 37 35 -27 -50 -3 -31 22 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1892 1847 1827 1853 1846 1206 522 192 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.7 34.3 35.9 38.1 40.2 46.0 51.8 54.6 55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.5 38.6 36.6 33.8 31.0 24.0 17.9 12.7 6.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 23 27 31 35 37 28 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 18 CX,CY: 13/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -18. -27. -37. -43. -47. -51. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -5. -12. -17. -17. -18. -18. -18. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -23. -24. -26. -27. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -9. -26. -40. -46. -71. -77. -82. -87. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 32.7 40.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 10/01/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 126.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 494.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 10/01/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 10/01/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 9( 18) 5( 22) 0( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 84 83 81 76 59 45 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 83 81 76 59 45 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 79 74 57 43 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 70 53 39 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 49 35 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 84 75 69 66 56 42 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 84 83 74 68 64 50 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS