* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP162019 10/01/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 35 35 36 36 35 28 21 16 16 15 V (KT) LAND 35 31 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 33 29 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 15 24 30 33 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 4 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 146 166 181 195 211 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.4 28.8 28.5 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 159 152 148 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 42 37 36 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 72 48 32 45 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 56 24 11 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 7 0 -3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 13 -8 0 -47 -66 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.2 27.1 28.0 28.7 29.3 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.1 110.7 111.1 111.5 112.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 9 7 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 26 23 17 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 17 CX,CY: -9/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -15. -24. -30. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -7. -14. -19. -19. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 26.2 109.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162019 NARDA 10/01/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 258.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162019 NARDA 10/01/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##