* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 10/01/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 81 76 67 49 38 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 83 81 76 67 49 38 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 85 82 77 70 63 50 42 35 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 16 27 34 45 48 30 18 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 14 11 8 9 8 -1 1 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 197 185 192 188 190 211 215 301 315 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 24.8 23.9 22.2 20.1 16.5 14.7 13.4 13.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 109 104 95 87 78 73 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 100 97 90 82 74 69 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.4 -51.4 -52.0 -54.9 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.4 2.0 1.4 0.9 1.5 2.7 2.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 43 36 38 38 42 49 43 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 45 47 47 46 43 40 41 35 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 75 85 86 75 86 115 54 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 107 117 136 136 108 88 49 -41 -78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 36 34 -12 -57 -45 -13 -4 34 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1822 1797 1808 1867 1554 889 425 251 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.3 36.2 38.0 40.5 42.9 48.4 53.4 56.1 57.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 39.0 36.8 34.5 31.3 28.2 21.4 16.4 11.8 5.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 26 30 34 35 33 24 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 20 CX,CY: 13/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -13. -20. -30. -39. -46. -50. -54. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -10. -17. -21. -19. -24. -24. -25. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -2. -5. -5. -14. -31. -33. -34. -36. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -9. -18. -36. -47. -58. -85. -92. -97.-102.-106. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 34.3 39.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 10/01/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.13 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.70 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 522.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 10/01/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 10/01/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 8( 17) 3( 20) 0( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 83 81 76 67 49 38 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 82 77 68 50 39 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 76 67 49 38 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 66 48 37 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 48 37 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 83 74 68 65 56 45 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT