* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 10/01/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 78 71 60 44 38 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 83 78 71 60 44 38 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 85 82 75 68 60 49 40 32 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 27 34 45 49 48 11 33 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 11 11 9 10 0 0 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 192 192 191 192 203 210 280 316 311 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 23.8 22.4 20.3 18.2 15.4 13.7 13.7 14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 103 96 88 82 75 69 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 101 95 90 83 78 72 66 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -51.9 -51.8 -53.7 -56.0 -56.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.9 2.2 3.4 1.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 38 38 37 39 50 48 45 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 45 46 44 45 41 42 42 30 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 94 88 73 70 109 87 62 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 118 135 128 108 72 72 25 -56 -66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 38 -1 -46 -42 -6 -44 42 25 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1814 1822 1871 1559 1279 574 270 106 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.9 38.1 40.2 42.8 45.4 51.2 54.9 55.6 56.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 36.8 34.2 31.7 28.2 24.8 18.5 13.8 9.4 5.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 29 33 36 36 30 17 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 22 CX,CY: 14/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -22. -32. -42. -49. -54. -57. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -10. -14. -22. -21. -22. -29. -30. -31. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -21. -40. -43. -45. -46. -46. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -14. -25. -41. -47. -69.-102.-111.-117.-123.-126. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 35.9 36.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 10/01/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.66 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 525.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 10/01/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 10/01/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 6( 15) 0( 15) 0( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 83 78 71 60 44 38 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 79 72 61 45 39 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 74 63 47 41 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 64 48 42 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 50 44 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 83 74 68 65 56 50 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT