* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 10/02/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 73 63 54 47 38 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 73 63 54 47 38 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 80 73 65 57 51 40 30 30 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 45 51 49 43 22 35 65 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 8 8 6 6 0 5 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 190 190 205 209 213 252 313 320 313 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.8 19.1 17.6 16.1 15.3 13.7 14.2 15.6 8.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 94 84 80 77 74 69 69 71 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 89 80 76 74 71 66 66 67 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -54.2 -56.9 -57.0 -56.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.1 2.7 2.5 0.3 -0.4 -1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 38 39 45 52 46 43 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 45 43 41 41 40 39 25 12 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 80 81 85 114 69 60 2 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 118 98 73 83 65 20 -57 -30 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -53 -52 -23 -4 0 20 39 28 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1825 1505 1203 841 535 219 -44 -20 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.9 43.7 46.4 49.1 51.8 54.8 54.6 53.3 53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 31.0 27.7 24.4 21.3 18.1 13.0 7.8 2.7 -2.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 37 36 35 34 28 17 16 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 37 CX,CY: 24/ 28 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -24. -32. -41. -47. -52. -56. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -28. -39. -41. -44. -47. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -22. -41. -52. -54. -57. -58. -58. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -17. -26. -33. -42. -65. -95.-121.-130.-138.-144.-149. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 40.9 31.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 10/02/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 44.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.72 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -1.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 399.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 16.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 10/02/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 0( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 73 63 54 47 38 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 69 60 53 44 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 67 60 51 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 63 54 37 16 16 16 16 16 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT