* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 10/02/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 61 52 46 41 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 61 52 46 41 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 61 54 48 43 33 30 29 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 42 49 50 54 35 33 44 57 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 11 7 8 2 8 9 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 188 206 210 219 231 299 314 320 300 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.0 18.0 16.7 15.6 14.6 14.9 16.3 7.8 7.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 87 82 78 76 72 70 72 65 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 82 78 75 73 69 66 68 64 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -55.0 -56.8 -56.8 -56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 1.3 2.7 3.1 1.3 -0.6 0.7 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 35 40 45 48 47 44 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 44 40 41 40 39 30 18 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 75 77 101 106 71 30 -5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 91 68 72 75 56 -32 -25 -29 -103 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -41 6 -2 7 29 15 24 25 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1536 1251 858 520 266 -9 -15 -40 -207 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.0 45.7 48.3 50.6 52.9 53.4 52.1 51.5 50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 28.0 24.4 20.8 17.4 14.0 9.2 4.4 -0.7 -5.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 36 37 34 32 22 15 16 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 34 CX,CY: 22/ 26 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -19. -26. -33. -38. -41. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -19. -27. -35. -40. -44. -49. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -12. -28. -42. -46. -49. -51. -52. -52. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -24. -29. -44. -70. -97.-113.-122.-130.-136.-142. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 43.0 28.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 10/02/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.72 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 93.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 335.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 4.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 10/02/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 61 52 46 41 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 60 54 49 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 60 55 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 55 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT