* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142019 10/11/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 51 50 45 39 33 30 29 29 31 33 V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 51 50 45 39 33 30 29 29 31 33 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 53 53 51 47 45 45 48 51 53 55 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 37 27 27 25 26 28 20 23 24 29 26 21 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 1 5 1 1 2 -1 -1 1 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 245 256 262 283 286 273 259 258 272 287 291 273 268 SST (C) 23.3 23.1 23.7 25.3 26.5 22.8 25.3 23.6 21.8 20.5 21.5 23.3 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 90 87 93 106 119 93 111 100 93 89 91 97 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 75 73 78 88 99 82 98 91 87 84 86 88 86 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.6 -55.4 -55.6 -55.6 -55.8 -56.0 -56.5 -57.2 -57.9 -58.9 -59.4 -58.7 200 MB VXT (C) 2.1 2.1 2.4 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 38 37 37 35 35 40 41 39 43 43 40 32 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 22 21 19 18 14 10 6 4 4 5 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 106 118 122 143 119 75 59 31 1 -47 -42 -49 -42 200 MB DIV 21 12 23 40 25 19 15 1 8 -10 -14 -33 -16 700-850 TADV 0 1 -5 0 -5 -7 -20 -12 -1 -22 10 -18 -5 LAND (KM) 331 317 345 393 435 550 613 658 766 1427 1689 1202 898 LAT (DEG N) 38.6 38.6 38.4 38.2 38.2 38.6 39.6 40.8 41.5 40.7 38.7 36.7 35.4 LONG(DEG W) 69.7 70.0 69.8 69.2 68.1 64.6 60.2 54.4 46.8 37.4 28.7 22.6 18.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 4 7 11 16 21 25 33 36 31 21 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -17. -24. -29. -31. -31. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -16. -22. -25. -26. -26. -24. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 38.6 69.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142019 MELISSA 10/11/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.06 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 305.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 9.6% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142019 MELISSA 10/11/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142019 MELISSA 10/11/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 53 51 50 45 39 33 30 29 29 31 33 18HR AGO 55 54 53 51 50 45 39 33 30 29 29 31 33 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 48 43 37 31 28 27 27 29 31 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 39 33 27 24 23 23 25 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT