* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142019 10/12/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 44 43 40 34 30 28 28 26 26 25 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 44 43 40 34 30 28 28 26 26 25 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 41 40 39 37 36 36 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 20 21 19 26 24 29 31 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 3 3 0 0 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 290 293 284 277 275 266 244 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.7 25.8 23.5 24.9 24.7 24.3 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 117 120 112 95 106 105 102 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 95 99 95 83 91 90 89 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.7 -55.7 -55.8 -55.6 -55.8 -56.4 -57.4 -59.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.4 1.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 36 34 38 39 39 33 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 19 17 15 11 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 132 154 139 125 75 56 34 10 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 41 24 34 17 5 2 18 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 -3 -2 -2 -13 -8 -24 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 443 476 501 541 590 617 719 757 710 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.7 37.7 37.7 38.0 38.2 38.7 39.1 39.9 40.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.1 68.4 67.7 66.3 65.0 61.8 58.3 54.2 49.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 11 12 13 15 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 11 15 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -11. -15. -19. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -16. -21. -23. -25. -26. -27. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -11. -15. -17. -17. -19. -19. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 37.7 69.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142019 MELISSA 10/12/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.29 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.18 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 293.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 9.9% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.5% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142019 MELISSA 10/12/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142019 MELISSA 10/12/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 44 44 43 40 34 30 28 28 26 26 25 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 43 40 34 30 28 28 26 26 25 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 37 31 27 25 25 23 23 22 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 31 25 21 19 19 17 17 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT