* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142019 10/12/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 45 45 43 39 35 32 30 28 27 25 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 45 45 43 39 35 32 30 28 27 25 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 42 41 40 41 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 18 23 23 21 28 32 41 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 0 -1 0 -2 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 275 275 283 274 261 241 255 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 25.6 23.0 23.6 24.9 22.6 23.6 18.6 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 110 92 96 106 91 98 78 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 92 80 84 90 80 85 72 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.1 -56.1 -56.0 -56.3 -56.4 -57.0 -58.6 -59.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 37 39 41 41 38 35 36 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 15 13 12 9 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 155 135 86 57 44 39 16 -13 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 39 38 12 10 8 15 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -8 -1 -10 -13 -33 -36 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 451 497 524 519 550 625 657 629 842 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.3 38.6 38.8 39.1 39.4 40.0 40.8 41.5 41.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.5 66.3 65.0 63.4 61.8 58.3 54.3 50.0 44.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 13 13 15 16 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -6. -14. -18. -23. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -13. -17. -18. -19. -21. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -6. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 38.3 67.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142019 MELISSA 10/12/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.36 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.15 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.02 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 300.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 13.1% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 4.7% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.0% 4.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142019 MELISSA 10/12/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142019 MELISSA 10/12/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 46 45 45 43 39 35 32 30 28 27 25 18HR AGO 45 44 44 43 43 41 37 33 30 28 26 25 23 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 40 38 34 30 27 25 23 22 20 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 33 29 25 22 20 18 17 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT