* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMA CP012019 10/12/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 41 42 42 41 40 35 31 32 36 40 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 41 42 42 41 40 35 31 32 36 40 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 42 41 39 34 28 23 20 19 20 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 17 23 24 29 27 23 24 15 11 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 2 3 4 7 7 0 2 0 -5 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 231 224 223 241 254 258 282 302 342 350 333 318 263 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.5 27.2 26.5 27.0 27.6 28.3 28.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 146 144 144 140 136 127 135 143 151 151 159 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 3 3 6 8 10 10 700-500 MB RH 61 57 53 56 60 62 60 54 51 43 39 36 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 2 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -63 -61 -42 -43 -45 -67 -109 -105 -98 -52 -36 -7 200 MB DIV 35 1 0 -20 -18 -29 -20 5 -43 -19 -40 -9 7 700-850 TADV 1 -3 -2 2 5 17 26 -1 -12 -26 -19 -8 -3 LAND (KM) 451 433 449 484 533 663 794 756 570 489 784 1250 1698 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.6 21.4 22.1 22.9 25.2 27.8 28.4 26.7 24.1 21.8 20.2 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 163.3 163.7 164.1 164.5 164.9 165.3 164.5 162.7 162.3 164.0 167.4 171.7 175.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 8 10 13 11 7 12 17 21 21 19 HEAT CONTENT 36 28 25 27 28 15 11 3 5 14 34 18 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 14 CX,CY: -4/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -10. -15. -17. -16. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 0. -4. -3. 1. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.6 163.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012019 EMA 10/12/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.18 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.25 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 20.6% 18.3% 13.5% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.5% 5.2% 2.6% 2.0% 0.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 9.2% 7.0% 5.2% 3.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012019 EMA 10/12/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##