* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMA CP012019 10/12/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 51 50 47 45 44 41 38 37 38 38 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 51 50 47 45 44 41 38 37 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 52 53 52 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 18 23 24 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 6 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 223 240 243 242 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.3 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 148 150 148 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 57 63 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -63 -59 -36 -33 -31 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 7 -2 -14 -3 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 3 7 13 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 433 492 567 662 764 971 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.3 22.0 22.7 23.4 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 163.7 164.5 165.3 166.2 167.1 168.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 28 39 45 36 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):341/ 11 CX,CY: -3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -11. -16. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -4. -7. -8. -7. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.6 163.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012019 EMA 10/12/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 1.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 6.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012019 EMA 10/12/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##