* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142019 10/13/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 37 37 34 27 23 20 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 37 37 34 27 23 20 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 31 31 33 34 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 24 25 26 32 35 39 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -2 -2 -4 -3 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 253 251 245 252 288 294 310 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 22.1 23.4 21.8 20.0 20.8 20.3 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 90 97 89 82 86 84 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 81 86 80 75 78 77 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.4 -56.6 -57.1 -57.7 -59.1 -59.6 -59.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.4 -0.6 -0.7 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 41 40 38 38 38 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 9 7 7 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 32 25 6 -8 -28 -42 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 10 4 -6 -3 -3 -24 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 1 -8 -14 -14 -27 -15 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 614 631 678 628 627 865 1284 1717 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.7 40.2 40.7 41.1 41.4 41.6 41.3 40.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.8 57.5 55.3 52.8 50.4 44.9 38.9 33.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 18 19 20 21 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 15 CX,CY: 15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 755 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 1. -9. -17. -23. -30. -35. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -8. -12. -15. -19. -22. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 39.7 59.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142019 MELISSA 10/13/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.16 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.18 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.01 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 251.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 9.1% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.2% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142019 MELISSA 10/13/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142019 MELISSA 10/13/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 36 37 37 34 27 23 20 16 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 36 36 33 26 22 19 15 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 33 30 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 26 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT