* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142019 10/14/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 40 38 36 34 31 28 24 21 18 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 40 38 36 34 31 28 24 21 18 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 36 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 25 31 35 35 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 245 256 273 289 298 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 22.5 20.5 21.7 20.7 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 93 85 90 86 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 88 83 78 82 80 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -57.0 -57.7 -58.2 -58.9 -59.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.8 0.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 36 36 34 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 2 -10 -30 -29 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 -9 -8 -10 -1 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -12 -3 -33 -22 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 700 646 649 764 938 1414 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.5 40.9 41.3 41.6 41.8 41.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.3 52.6 50.0 46.8 43.5 36.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 22 24 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 17 CX,CY: 16/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 0. -9. -17. -24. -31. -36. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 25. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 40.5 55.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142019 MELISSA 10/14/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.18 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.02 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 263.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 6.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142019 MELISSA 10/14/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142019 MELISSA 10/14/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 39 40 38 36 34 31 28 24 21 18 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 38 36 34 32 29 26 22 19 16 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 31 29 27 24 21 17 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT