* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMA CP012019 10/14/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 24 25 27 28 29 30 31 33 35 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 24 25 27 28 29 30 31 33 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 20 19 17 16 16 17 19 20 22 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 21 22 24 25 20 21 16 17 13 15 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 11 12 9 0 -1 1 -2 -4 -7 -8 -3 SHEAR DIR 257 266 282 297 311 315 324 300 303 309 327 329 294 SST (C) 26.9 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.8 27.6 27.7 28.4 29.2 29.8 29.4 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 129 127 130 132 143 145 152 160 164 159 156 155 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 6 8 11 11 12 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 58 54 50 47 44 41 36 34 38 39 43 45 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -58 -93 -106 -114 -107 -78 -53 -14 25 44 51 60 81 200 MB DIV -21 2 -6 -11 -16 -21 -14 -12 3 7 -5 -3 0 700-850 TADV 33 23 1 -4 -14 -28 -36 -5 -4 -11 -8 0 0 LAND (KM) 1039 1088 1066 996 898 771 958 1384 1816 2173 4110 3951 3853 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.6 29.1 28.9 28.1 25.4 22.4 19.7 17.8 16.3 15.1 14.3 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 168.2 167.8 167.0 166.2 165.7 166.4 169.1 172.9 176.6 179.6 181.7 182.9 183.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 7 8 10 17 22 21 18 14 10 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 5 2 3 7 9 15 18 22 45 76 57 48 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 14 CX,CY: -1/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 4. -2. -8. -13. -15. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.4 168.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012019 EMA 10/14/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012019 EMA 10/14/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##