* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152019 10/15/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 35 31 28 24 20 17 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 35 31 28 24 20 17 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 32 31 29 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 8 8 12 18 27 40 45 47 44 42 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -2 -4 0 2 -1 -3 -2 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 191 189 213 212 218 231 225 228 233 240 246 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.6 26.9 26.3 26.1 26.1 25.7 25.9 25.7 25.7 25.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 131 122 116 114 114 110 112 109 108 109 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 125 115 108 106 105 101 101 98 96 96 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 -55.4 -56.0 -56.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 58 57 55 52 46 40 32 30 29 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 33 38 27 19 12 13 2 -17 -35 -49 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 27 18 19 37 44 33 12 -4 0 -12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 4 4 6 17 17 21 23 15 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 330 397 478 548 621 784 886 968 1109 1224 1293 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.9 19.3 20.5 21.3 21.8 22.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 20.5 21.2 21.9 22.4 23.0 24.1 25.3 26.3 27.7 28.8 29.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -5. -12. -20. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 20.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152019 FIFTEEN 10/15/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.54 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 16.4% 12.0% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 7.6% 3.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 8.3% 5.4% 3.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 6.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152019 FIFTEEN 10/15/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 35 35 31 28 24 20 17 16 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 33 29 26 22 18 15 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 29 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT