* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMA CP012019 10/15/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 24 24 23 23 23 23 22 24 26 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 24 24 23 23 23 23 22 24 26 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 19 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 24 26 27 26 26 20 20 18 15 16 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 12 12 10 6 0 3 1 -4 -9 -4 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 252 269 286 303 311 317 315 300 320 324 348 346 324 SST (C) 26.7 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.8 27.6 27.9 28.7 29.3 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 131 125 126 129 133 143 147 155 160 162 158 156 152 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 4 4 7 9 11 11 11 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 53 50 46 42 42 39 34 35 37 39 40 45 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -94 -107 -113 -111 -91 -53 -30 17 44 58 59 69 70 200 MB DIV 1 -7 -11 -16 -17 -10 -10 -13 -1 4 -2 4 12 700-850 TADV 20 1 -3 -13 -15 -42 -28 -3 -10 -12 -4 0 0 LAND (KM) 1120 1146 1096 1001 903 841 1105 1509 1871 2149 4186 4077 4046 LAT (DEG N) 28.4 29.2 29.3 28.7 27.6 24.7 21.6 19.2 17.4 15.9 14.7 14.1 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 168.4 168.0 167.2 166.5 166.3 167.5 170.5 174.0 177.0 179.2 180.6 181.4 181.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 9 12 19 21 18 15 11 7 3 0 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 2 6 5 12 15 26 52 80 63 56 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 3. -3. -10. -16. -18. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.4 168.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012019 EMA 10/15/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.96 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012019 EMA 10/15/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##