* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMA CP012019 10/15/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 27 29 31 32 31 30 29 28 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 27 29 31 32 31 30 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 20 21 22 24 26 27 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 22 21 19 20 14 17 17 16 15 16 23 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 7 3 1 4 -1 -5 -2 -3 2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 287 301 309 309 310 308 294 313 298 301 256 257 254 SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.9 26.7 28.0 28.5 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 128 134 133 148 153 156 154 156 155 157 160 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 7 9 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 45 42 40 38 37 32 32 36 40 44 50 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -128 -126 -114 -104 -89 -67 -19 4 17 34 47 54 43 200 MB DIV -10 -4 -14 -35 -31 -7 -15 2 16 14 8 3 -8 700-850 TADV 4 -8 -13 -30 -40 -35 -6 -11 -10 -3 -1 -6 5 LAND (KM) 1176 1160 1096 1045 1043 1250 1645 2051 4068 3990 3930 3863 3712 LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.1 28.5 27.5 26.2 23.4 21.2 19.7 18.7 18.1 17.6 17.0 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 168.5 168.3 168.0 168.2 169.0 171.9 175.7 179.4 182.3 184.2 185.3 186.0 187.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 8 12 16 21 20 17 12 7 4 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 5 3 19 39 53 41 42 46 49 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 0. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.1 168.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012019 EMA 10/15/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.08 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 225.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012019 EMA 10/15/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##