* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152019 10/16/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 20 26 33 40 48 55 41 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 0 -2 1 -1 -5 -4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 220 225 227 225 228 234 235 235 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.9 25.8 26.0 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 113 111 110 113 112 114 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 107 106 104 102 102 104 103 104 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.9 -55.3 -56.0 -56.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 47 44 41 36 33 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 11 9 7 4 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 22 20 22 33 9 2 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 41 48 31 22 33 12 13 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 11 17 10 10 18 20 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 662 738 817 887 935 1078 1254 1472 1666 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.3 18.0 18.5 19.0 20.0 21.4 22.2 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 23.4 23.9 24.4 25.0 25.7 27.3 29.1 31.2 33.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -7. -17. -24. -32. -38. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -19. -24. -29. -33. -36. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.6 23.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152019 FIFTEEN 10/16/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.10 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.42 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.42 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 8.4% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.9% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152019 FIFTEEN 10/16/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT