* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN EP172019 10/16/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 33 38 44 49 55 59 62 65 67 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 15 18 17 13 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 8 7 6 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 49 46 53 52 39 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.2 28.5 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 161 162 158 150 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.9 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 7 7 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 84 84 84 85 87 84 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 9 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 64 50 57 63 76 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 114 109 128 161 154 111 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -8 -13 -7 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 139 170 174 60 -22 -135 -208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 16 20 24 20 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.4 92.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172019 SEVENTEEN 10/16/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.26 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 133.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.88 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 27.6% 22.7% 16.9% 0.0% 21.8% 23.3% 43.2% Logistic: 2.1% 23.0% 9.5% 6.7% 0.6% 37.6% 47.4% 20.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 8.4% Consensus: 4.0% 17.6% 11.0% 7.9% 0.2% 19.9% 23.8% 23.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172019 SEVENTEEN 10/16/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##