* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152019 10/16/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 24 31 37 39 52 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -2 0 -1 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 232 230 234 239 234 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.9 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 113 111 111 113 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 105 104 101 102 105 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 44 43 43 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 18 18 32 15 -1 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 37 21 17 32 34 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 16 13 14 13 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 716 790 865 933 979 1150 1369 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 18.9 20.0 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 23.8 24.3 24.9 25.5 26.1 28.0 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 7 9 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 772 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -6. -16. -24. -33. -41. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -11. -17. -23. -29. -35. -38. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.0 23.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152019 FIFTEEN 10/16/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.45 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152019 FIFTEEN 10/16/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 23 22 21 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 23 22 21 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT