* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN EP172019 10/16/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 47 53 59 63 66 68 71 72 V (KT) LAND 30 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 11 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 5 2 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 62 52 77 96 54 299 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.6 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 154 150 149 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 8 8 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 82 83 85 86 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 7 5 5 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 52 62 63 60 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 89 90 135 133 126 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -9 -5 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 114 27 -83 -165 -172 -177 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.8 16.5 17.3 18.1 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.5 95.3 96.2 96.7 97.3 98.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 22 17 16 16 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 23. 29. 34. 36. 38. 41. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 94.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172019 SEVENTEEN 10/16/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.54 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.78 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 28.4% 24.7% 18.5% 0.0% 22.8% 27.0% 43.7% Logistic: 6.0% 50.0% 28.8% 22.1% 2.9% 61.8% 57.2% 20.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 5.6% 7.1% 2.3% 0.1% 1.7% 1.7% 11.8% Consensus: 5.7% 28.0% 20.2% 14.3% 1.0% 28.8% 28.6% 25.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172019 SEVENTEEN 10/16/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##