* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN EP172019 10/16/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 34 39 44 51 57 60 63 66 67 V (KT) LAND 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 9 7 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 56 72 84 117 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 153 150 150 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 7 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 84 86 86 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 66 71 65 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 94 132 138 128 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -6 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 9 -86 -151 -189 -226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.6 17.3 18.1 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.7 96.6 97.5 98.4 99.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 16 12 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 455 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 14. 21. 27. 30. 33. 36. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 95.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172019 SEVENTEEN 10/16/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.68 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.81 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 28.7% 25.8% 19.5% 0.0% 23.6% 33.7% 999.0% Logistic: 0.7% 11.8% 5.1% 3.1% 0.2% 27.4% 45.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Consensus: 4.0% 13.7% 10.5% 7.6% 0.1% 17.0% 26.2% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172019 SEVENTEEN 10/16/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##