* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182019 10/18/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 44 46 47 46 43 40 38 37 36 37 39 V (KT) LAND 35 40 44 46 47 46 43 40 38 37 36 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 42 44 45 46 44 41 38 35 33 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 9 12 20 25 20 19 19 20 17 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -5 -6 0 3 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 11 61 78 102 110 133 146 139 116 110 114 109 98 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 140 140 141 140 139 138 138 140 141 142 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 53 51 47 44 43 40 31 29 30 33 38 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 42 21 9 -9 -6 -23 -4 2 0 -2 -11 -22 200 MB DIV 62 57 25 15 -12 -34 -22 -57 -72 -68 -32 -19 -39 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2283 2277 2272 2240 2208 2130 2108 2134 2143 2144 2122 2066 1994 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.4 10.7 11.2 11.1 10.8 10.6 10.5 10.6 11.0 11.6 LONG(DEG W) 127.0 127.1 127.2 127.1 127.0 126.5 126.1 126.1 126.0 125.9 125.7 125.4 125.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 11 10 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 12. 11. 8. 5. 3. 2. 1. 2. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.8 127.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182019 EIGHTEEN 10/18/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 32.1% 40.9% 49.5% 17.8% 27.7% 2.0% 0.5% 28.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 4.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.3% 15.1% 16.7% 6.0% 9.3% 0.7% 0.2% 9.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182019 EIGHTEEN 10/18/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##