* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OCTAVE EP182019 10/18/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 46 46 44 41 39 39 39 40 39 41 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 46 46 44 41 39 39 39 40 39 41 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 48 49 49 46 42 40 38 36 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 8 12 15 21 23 16 19 13 14 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 0 -3 -8 -3 0 8 5 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 49 68 80 99 117 138 145 120 112 108 128 132 123 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 141 141 140 140 139 138 139 138 139 141 142 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 50 49 44 44 43 34 30 29 31 34 41 39 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 2 4 4 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 38 26 7 -10 1 -12 -15 -12 0 -9 -14 -40 -39 200 MB DIV 59 36 17 -6 -16 -26 -34 -71 -79 -47 -35 -41 -41 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2290 2280 2271 2235 2199 2160 2154 2156 2196 2226 2216 2175 2112 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.1 10.9 10.7 10.4 10.3 10.6 11.1 11.7 LONG(DEG W) 127.1 127.3 127.4 127.2 127.1 126.8 126.5 126.3 126.5 126.8 127.0 127.0 126.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 9.8 127.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182019 OCTAVE 10/18/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.53 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.24 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 21.8% 20.8% 15.4% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.5% 15.6% 20.0% 4.8% 7.7% 0.7% 0.5% 19.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.5% 13.0% 13.6% 6.8% 5.7% 0.2% 0.2% 6.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182019 OCTAVE 10/18/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##