* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OCTAVE EP182019 10/18/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 41 40 38 37 34 33 33 35 34 36 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 41 40 38 37 34 33 33 35 34 36 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 43 43 41 38 36 34 33 31 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 11 15 19 23 20 19 16 14 10 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 0 -3 -9 -9 -2 3 7 0 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 52 79 108 125 137 145 128 112 102 108 108 113 98 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 141 140 140 139 140 140 140 139 139 140 140 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 47 45 46 44 40 32 30 30 34 37 40 41 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 27 11 4 15 6 -13 -5 -2 8 7 0 -23 -32 200 MB DIV 41 24 -4 -6 -22 -10 -47 -75 -68 -30 -24 -35 -32 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2203 2174 2145 2125 2105 2090 2114 2161 2167 2159 2159 2143 2127 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.6 11.3 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.3 11.5 11.8 LONG(DEG W) 126.6 126.7 126.7 126.7 126.6 126.4 126.4 126.7 127.0 127.1 127.0 127.0 127.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 2 1 1 2 2 1 0 0 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -5. -6. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 10.4 126.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182019 OCTAVE 10/18/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.41 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.31 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 18.4% 13.7% 9.0% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.9% 1.8% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 6.9% 5.2% 3.1% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182019 OCTAVE 10/18/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##