* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OCTAVE EP182019 10/18/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 29 28 26 23 22 22 23 25 28 V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 29 28 26 23 22 22 23 25 28 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 30 29 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 16 20 24 25 24 26 19 15 10 9 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 -1 -6 -9 -8 -4 3 5 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 73 98 116 129 137 132 113 111 102 103 82 85 69 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 141 141 141 140 140 140 140 140 142 143 144 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 45 46 44 41 36 32 31 33 35 39 39 40 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 5 15 3 -6 -9 2 15 14 7 -20 -19 -27 200 MB DIV 24 -11 -8 -18 -9 -15 -64 -45 -29 -11 -22 -26 -26 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2170 2145 2121 2094 2067 2069 2108 2131 2153 2144 2104 2072 2066 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.4 11.1 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.8 12.3 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 126.6 126.6 126.6 126.4 126.2 125.9 126.1 126.3 126.7 126.8 126.8 126.9 127.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 11 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.8 126.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182019 OCTAVE 10/18/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 2.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.16 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.15 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.72 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 13.0% 7.8% 5.8% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.4% 2.6% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182019 OCTAVE 10/18/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##