* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OCTAVE EP182019 10/19/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 30 28 26 25 23 20 18 18 18 20 24 V (KT) LAND 35 33 30 28 26 25 23 20 18 18 18 20 24 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 29 27 24 23 21 20 19 18 17 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 20 26 27 27 27 21 19 14 13 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -2 -6 -10 -11 -8 0 1 0 -3 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 106 118 131 135 144 125 117 109 107 107 114 96 86 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 142 142 141 140 139 139 140 141 143 143 143 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 46 45 43 37 34 31 33 35 39 42 42 39 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 21 7 -4 -15 0 7 9 0 -13 -15 -15 -9 200 MB DIV -9 -12 -16 -21 -13 -39 -58 -57 -34 -27 -12 -26 -4 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 2129 2093 2058 2039 2020 2039 2064 2079 2093 2067 2003 1956 1924 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.5 11.2 11.1 11.2 11.6 12.3 12.8 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 126.6 126.5 126.3 126.1 125.8 125.6 125.6 125.7 126.0 126.1 126.0 125.9 125.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 3 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 11 12 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. -15. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.3 126.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182019 OCTAVE 10/19/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182019 OCTAVE 10/19/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##