* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OCTAVE EP182019 10/19/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 23 22 20 19 19 21 22 23 26 V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 23 22 20 19 19 21 22 23 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 24 22 20 19 18 18 17 17 16 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 22 24 26 25 22 21 18 16 13 11 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -8 -10 -7 -1 3 2 0 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 122 133 138 139 134 110 102 97 100 108 109 97 87 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 140 141 140 139 140 141 142 142 142 141 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 44 42 37 35 33 31 36 38 41 41 39 34 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 6 -4 -15 -9 0 9 6 -3 -21 -17 -24 -10 200 MB DIV -11 -17 -22 -7 -15 -52 -58 -48 -30 -21 -12 -29 -6 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 2113 2098 2082 2071 2061 2072 2112 2118 2099 2050 1987 1948 1933 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.1 10.8 10.9 11.3 11.9 12.5 12.7 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 126.5 126.4 126.3 126.1 125.9 125.6 125.8 126.0 126.2 126.2 126.0 125.7 125.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 3 3 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 11 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -9. -8. -7. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 126.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182019 OCTAVE 10/19/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 223.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182019 OCTAVE 10/19/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##