* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OCTAVE EP182019 10/19/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 21 20 19 18 20 22 23 23 26 V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 21 20 19 18 20 22 23 23 26 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 19 18 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 19 18 17 17 15 18 11 12 14 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -5 -7 -5 0 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 133 132 128 116 107 94 82 98 113 95 83 92 89 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 140 140 139 139 140 142 142 142 143 144 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 37 35 33 32 31 35 40 45 42 43 35 32 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -8 -1 3 1 5 2 -1 -18 -10 -3 -1 0 200 MB DIV -13 -3 -5 -22 -37 -52 -56 -20 5 11 -6 2 -16 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 2045 2038 2031 2052 2072 2091 2089 2057 1993 1937 1881 1843 1828 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.3 11.1 10.8 10.9 11.2 11.7 12.2 12.7 12.8 12.4 LONG(DEG W) 125.8 125.7 125.5 125.6 125.6 125.5 125.6 125.5 125.2 125.0 124.8 124.4 123.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 1 0 1 2 3 3 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 10 10 10 12 11 10 11 12 13 15 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -15. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -3. -2. -2. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.6 125.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182019 OCTAVE 10/19/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.06 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.09 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 37.8 to 2.1 1.00 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.60 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.0% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182019 OCTAVE 10/19/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##