* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PRISCILLA EP192019 10/20/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 40 43 46 49 51 53 55 57 58 V (KT) LAND 35 36 33 31 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 33 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 12 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 108 97 88 105 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.3 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 161 157 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 59 55 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 63 78 93 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 61 68 98 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 85 46 -5 -69 -96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.7 20.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.1 104.2 104.3 104.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 23 21 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 22. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.8 104.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192019 PRISCILLA 10/20/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.45 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.52 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.85 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 23.6% 22.8% 17.9% 11.2% 22.6% 23.7% 999.0% Logistic: 5.3% 12.6% 12.1% 5.9% 2.4% 3.7% 1.1% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 999.0% Consensus: 5.8% 13.0% 11.9% 8.0% 4.6% 8.8% 8.3% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192019 PRISCILLA 10/20/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##