* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENESIS EP782019 10/21/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 32 33 35 38 40 41 42 44 44 42 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 32 33 35 38 40 41 42 44 44 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 34 35 35 34 32 30 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 4 5 5 10 13 18 16 12 11 18 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 4 6 5 SHEAR DIR 123 137 108 52 1 322 299 297 289 283 264 259 260 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.2 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 146 148 152 147 152 153 152 153 151 153 152 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -54.1 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 42 45 47 49 50 49 53 57 58 61 63 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 25 30 32 30 23 5 2 -1 -17 -25 -25 -36 -50 200 MB DIV -1 -5 5 18 16 -4 -2 21 70 65 41 23 42 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 -2 -1 -2 2 3 LAND (KM) 2092 2005 1935 1876 1803 1646 1489 1342 1200 1093 1023 955 894 LAT (DEG N) 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.9 9.3 9.7 10.5 11.6 LONG(DEG W) 138.9 139.9 140.8 141.6 142.6 144.7 146.9 149.1 151.4 153.4 155.4 157.5 159.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 28 29 28 29 30 31 33 32 30 27 24 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 14. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.7 138.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP782019 GENESIS 10/21/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.75 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 17.0% 15.3% 10.6% 0.0% 15.2% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 10.2% 6.3% 2.7% 0.9% 1.2% 0.7% 11.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 9.3% 7.2% 4.5% 0.3% 5.5% 5.0% 3.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP782019 GENESIS 10/21/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##