* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PABLO AL182019 10/25/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 48 50 50 50 51 51 48 46 43 39 36 V (KT) LAND 40 45 48 50 50 50 51 51 48 46 43 39 36 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 48 50 51 51 52 52 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 31 33 41 40 36 31 29 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -2 -3 -3 2 2 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 243 233 234 228 230 245 244 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.0 22.0 22.2 21.6 21.0 20.2 18.4 16.3 15.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 84 84 88 87 84 81 78 72 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 73 73 78 79 76 73 72 67 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -54.2 -55.2 -56.2 -56.7 -58.8 -60.4 -61.2 -60.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.0 1.5 0.8 -0.8 0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 41 42 44 49 48 50 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 19 18 18 19 18 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 216 180 168 144 125 117 101 60 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 20 49 42 28 62 22 12 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -18 -19 -22 -27 -6 31 55 26 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2062 2017 1971 1830 1665 1455 1194 922 867 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 32.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 10 17 15 14 20 14 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -4. -11. -18. -24. -30. -35. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 14. 18. 24. 28. 30. 31. 32. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 8. 6. 3. -1. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 36.0 32.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182019 PABLO 10/25/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 4.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182019 PABLO 10/25/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 48 50 50 50 51 51 48 46 43 39 36 18HR AGO 40 39 42 44 44 44 45 45 42 40 37 33 30 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 38 38 39 39 36 34 31 27 24 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 30 31 31 28 26 23 19 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT