* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PABLO AL182019 10/26/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 48 51 52 52 46 43 39 35 32 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 48 51 52 52 46 43 39 35 32 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 46 48 48 49 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 34 41 40 39 31 35 30 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -7 -6 -1 0 -3 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 229 230 225 224 244 254 254 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.4 22.8 23.3 21.7 21.6 18.4 17.6 16.6 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 89 92 95 89 89 77 73 70 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 79 82 85 82 81 71 67 65 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.3 -54.7 -55.5 -56.3 -59.5 -61.1 -60.8 -61.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 3.2 2.9 2.1 1.8 1.8 0.4 -0.6 0.4 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 47 47 48 51 54 53 53 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 19 18 18 19 19 18 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 181 155 147 138 139 120 103 65 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 44 43 26 55 44 33 -5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -18 -14 -17 -13 9 55 49 31 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1969 1822 1672 1549 1346 1080 925 920 875 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.6 35.4 35.1 36.5 37.9 41.6 43.8 45.8 46.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 31.8 30.1 28.5 26.6 24.6 22.1 20.5 20.0 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 15 21 21 16 11 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -4. -11. -19. -25. -31. -36. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 14. 18. 24. 27. 29. 30. 32. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 12. 12. 6. 3. -1. -5. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 35.6 31.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182019 PABLO 10/26/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182019 PABLO 10/26/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 45 47 48 51 52 52 46 43 39 35 32 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 44 47 48 48 42 39 35 31 28 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 42 43 43 37 34 30 26 23 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 34 35 35 29 26 22 18 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT