* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PABLO AL182019 10/26/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 47 48 51 53 52 45 42 38 33 30 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 47 48 51 53 52 45 42 38 33 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 42 44 45 46 47 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 41 41 38 34 27 29 38 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -6 -2 -1 3 -4 -6 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 230 224 224 225 251 262 268 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.8 23.0 22.0 21.4 20.0 18.0 17.2 16.2 14.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 91 94 89 88 82 75 71 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 80 83 81 80 76 70 66 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.1 -55.4 -56.4 -57.5 -60.3 -60.7 -61.2 -61.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.9 2.2 2.0 2.1 0.9 -0.6 -0.3 -0.6 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 44 45 48 51 52 55 58 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 18 19 18 19 18 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 160 153 144 143 128 119 82 91 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 45 16 57 50 27 3 3 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -17 -8 9 18 53 53 60 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1864 1743 1611 1417 1243 1019 981 1013 883 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.3 35.8 36.3 37.8 39.3 42.7 44.8 46.3 48.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 30.7 28.9 27.2 25.4 23.6 21.6 21.1 21.1 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 15 17 21 19 15 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 791 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -10. -19. -26. -32. -37. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 8. 12. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 33. 34. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 11. 13. 12. 5. 2. -2. -7. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 35.3 30.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182019 PABLO 10/26/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182019 PABLO 10/26/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 47 48 51 53 52 45 42 38 33 30 18HR AGO 40 39 41 44 45 48 50 49 42 39 35 30 27 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 40 43 45 44 37 34 30 25 22 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 34 36 35 28 25 21 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT