* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PABLO AL182019 10/27/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 61 61 61 56 54 53 50 46 42 39 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 61 61 61 56 54 53 50 46 42 39 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 59 58 57 52 50 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 39 35 23 21 29 30 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 0 5 -3 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 220 233 253 270 267 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.0 20.7 19.4 19.0 17.8 16.8 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 91 85 80 78 73 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 84 78 74 71 68 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -56.7 -58.2 -59.6 -60.3 -60.6 -60.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.4 1.6 0.8 -0.4 -0.7 -0.2 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 50 51 52 56 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 20 20 20 19 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 129 144 134 124 112 91 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 50 56 33 26 -3 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 37 45 57 30 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1291 1128 987 907 852 921 1025 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.2 39.0 40.8 42.3 43.7 45.3 46.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 23.8 22.2 20.7 20.1 19.6 20.2 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 22 18 15 11 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 24 CX,CY: 20/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -23. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -16. -20. -23. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 34. 36. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 37.2 23.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182019 PABLO 10/27/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.02 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 262.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 5.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182019 PABLO 10/27/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 59 61 61 61 56 54 53 50 46 42 39 18HR AGO 55 54 56 58 58 58 53 51 50 47 43 39 36 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 53 53 48 46 45 42 38 34 31 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 45 40 38 37 34 30 26 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT