* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PABLO AL182019 10/27/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 65 65 62 61 59 58 56 53 50 48 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 65 65 62 61 59 58 56 53 50 48 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 61 59 56 52 52 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 19 23 24 30 38 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 4 -2 0 0 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 236 262 272 266 265 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 18.6 17.6 17.4 16.6 16.1 15.9 14.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 80 76 73 70 68 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 75 71 67 64 63 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.8 -59.4 -60.3 -60.4 -60.3 -60.6 -58.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 -0.1 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 53 50 48 56 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 22 22 21 16 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 135 114 100 68 64 108 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 55 29 9 -16 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 24 50 61 41 29 61 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 805 735 724 788 845 840 834 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.9 43.7 45.5 46.1 46.7 47.5 49.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 18.8 18.1 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.6 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 19 12 7 6 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 31 CX,CY: 18/ 25 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -17. -21. -26. -30. -32. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 9. 11. 16. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 37. 39. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 41.9 18.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182019 PABLO 10/27/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182019 PABLO 10/27/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 64 65 65 62 61 59 58 56 53 50 48 18HR AGO 60 59 61 62 62 59 58 56 55 53 50 47 45 12HR AGO 60 57 56 57 57 54 53 51 50 48 45 42 40 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 47 46 44 43 41 38 35 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT