* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PABLO AL182019 10/27/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 71 69 67 61 61 58 56 53 50 47 46 V (KT) LAND 70 71 71 69 67 61 61 58 56 53 50 47 46 V (KT) LGEM 70 70 66 61 58 54 55 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 24 25 28 33 38 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 1 -1 -1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 255 269 263 263 263 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 17.7 17.5 16.4 16.0 15.5 14.5 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 76 73 70 68 68 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 71 68 65 63 63 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -59.3 -60.1 -60.2 -59.9 -60.1 -59.8 -58.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.9 -0.1 0.8 1.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 49 45 45 51 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 22 20 19 15 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 108 103 63 50 53 105 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 28 1 -12 0 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 51 49 28 24 21 60 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 680 704 754 761 746 716 768 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 44.1 45.4 46.6 47.1 47.6 48.9 50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 17.4 17.3 17.2 17.6 18.1 19.1 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 13 9 6 7 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 25 CX,CY: 13/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -13. -18. -23. -29. -36. -41. -45. -48. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 6. 9. 12. 16. 20. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38. 39. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -3. -9. -9. -12. -14. -17. -20. -23. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 44.1 17.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182019 PABLO 10/27/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.14 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -4.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182019 PABLO 10/27/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 3( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 71 69 67 61 61 58 56 53 50 47 46 18HR AGO 70 69 69 67 65 59 59 56 54 51 48 45 44 12HR AGO 70 67 66 64 62 56 56 53 51 48 45 42 41 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 58 52 52 49 47 44 41 38 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT