* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PABLO AL182019 10/28/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 39 40 41 45 46 44 42 42 41 39 37 V (KT) LAND 45 41 39 40 41 45 46 44 42 42 41 39 37 V (KT) LGEM 45 38 35 35 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 27 32 36 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 265 264 265 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 16.5 16.1 15.5 15.0 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 69 68 67 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 64 63 63 62 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -60.3 -60.0 -60.1 -59.9 -59.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.2 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 45 42 44 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 20 19 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 53 44 69 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -26 -15 -6 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 34 16 13 33 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 763 757 709 668 632 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 46.4 47.1 47.7 48.3 48.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -2. -9. -16. -22. -28. -33. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -9. -8. -5. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 20. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -5. -4. 0. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 46.4 17.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182019 PABLO 10/28/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 7.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182019 PABLO 10/28/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 41 39 40 41 45 46 44 42 42 41 39 37 18HR AGO 45 44 42 43 44 48 49 47 45 45 44 42 40 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 47 48 46 44 44 43 41 39 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 40 41 39 37 37 36 34 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT