* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * REBEKAH AL192019 10/30/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 44 43 39 41 44 47 48 49 49 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 44 43 39 41 44 47 48 49 49 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 39 40 41 44 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 14 16 19 15 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -1 -1 -7 -4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 213 213 212 223 268 346 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.6 20.4 19.5 19.7 19.6 20.5 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 81 81 78 79 79 84 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 73 73 71 71 72 76 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.8 -54.4 -55.6 -56.8 -58.9 -59.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 3.1 2.7 3.2 3.1 2.6 0.6 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 49 44 40 33 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 24 21 18 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 283 228 190 155 90 -23 -109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 1 -9 -4 -15 -35 -60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -23 -4 -13 -9 -8 -29 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1357 1408 1467 1525 1589 1894 1495 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 19 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 11 CX,CY: 11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -10. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. 1. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 38.0 41.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192019 REBEKAH 10/30/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.04 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 8.0% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.1% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192019 REBEKAH 10/30/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192019 REBEKAH 10/30/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 43 44 43 39 41 44 47 48 49 49 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 42 41 37 39 42 45 46 47 47 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 37 33 35 38 41 42 43 43 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 30 26 28 31 34 35 36 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT