* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY EP202019 11/15/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 29 29 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 29 29 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 32 30 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 6 8 17 31 37 51 52 48 58 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 2 1 5 4 3 4 2 -2 -2 -6 -7 SHEAR DIR 230 229 237 241 248 244 228 227 229 242 250 255 255 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.9 28.6 27.9 27.4 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 152 152 151 149 146 145 150 142 137 140 143 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 -53.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -55.0 -55.4 -55.8 -56.0 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 6 2 5 2 5 700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 58 62 65 65 64 58 49 45 42 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 14 14 13 9 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 17 22 31 37 6 1 8 -13 -32 -14 -49 -57 200 MB DIV 35 46 21 38 73 44 44 46 57 -16 -11 -19 14 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 9 12 8 0 0 2 7 LAND (KM) 807 784 769 753 738 707 575 333 180 23 -119 -223 -401 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.5 15.7 17.6 20.0 22.2 23.5 24.2 24.3 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 108.6 109.0 109.3 109.7 110.4 110.3 109.2 107.8 107.0 105.8 104.5 102.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 8 11 14 9 6 7 6 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 21 21 18 15 12 10 14 17 10 7 8 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -2. -10. -21. -29. -36. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10. -8. -7. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -3. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -3. -10. -22. -27. -32. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 108.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202019 TWENTY 11/15/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.70 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.05 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.63 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 20.9% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 5.1% 2.7% 1.3% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 9.4% 6.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202019 TWENTY 11/15/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##