* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY EP202019 11/15/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 29 26 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 29 26 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 31 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 12 13 23 33 44 50 51 64 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 5 6 6 4 3 5 4 -6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 239 254 248 252 233 224 224 224 233 230 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.1 27.3 27.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 151 149 145 143 140 133 135 134 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -55.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 61 61 59 62 60 58 47 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 15 16 14 13 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 20 28 33 16 -4 13 25 37 31 42 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 23 31 69 68 44 46 78 56 31 20 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 0 3 17 25 9 17 26 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 779 753 731 703 685 673 513 293 142 39 -26 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.8 15.4 16.6 18.3 20.3 21.8 22.8 23.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.5 108.8 109.1 109.5 109.9 110.7 110.4 109.5 109.3 109.5 110.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 8 7 8 9 9 6 5 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 19 17 14 13 10 9 9 4 5 6 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -5. -14. -24. -35. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -16. -22. -29. -30. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 108.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202019 TWENTY 11/15/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 3.6% 1.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202019 TWENTY 11/15/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##