* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP202019 11/16/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 42 41 36 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 42 41 36 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 46 45 43 41 34 25 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 17 20 23 26 36 52 56 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 8 7 1 7 3 2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 251 250 241 229 225 225 237 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.7 26.8 27.1 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 147 145 142 141 132 135 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 60 57 57 62 57 50 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 15 15 14 9 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 24 14 3 10 17 19 8 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 72 76 73 57 45 42 0 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 5 11 13 23 18 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 691 673 662 620 529 312 89 0 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.8 16.5 17.4 18.2 20.1 22.1 24.2 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.1 110.5 110.7 110.8 110.2 109.9 110.3 110.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 13 12 10 8 8 2 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -16. -27. -34. -40. -43. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -8. -15. -17. -18. -18. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -3. -4. -9. -19. -31. -40. -46. -50. -51. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.0 109.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202019 RAYMOND 11/16/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.52 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 16.7% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 6.1% 5.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202019 RAYMOND 11/16/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##