* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYONE EP212019 11/17/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 31 34 36 41 44 46 48 51 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 31 34 36 41 44 46 48 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 27 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 4 6 7 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 0 3 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 193 192 194 163 141 129 185 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 145 143 141 138 137 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 64 63 61 62 65 63 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -52 -48 -45 -36 -38 -53 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 19 23 34 38 23 43 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 814 837 859 861 864 883 904 954 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.0 102.8 103.7 104.2 104.7 105.8 106.9 108.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 5 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 10 8 7 7 5 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 11. 14. 16. 18. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.7 102.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212019 TWENTYONE 11/17/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.82 6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 22.4% 21.6% 16.1% 0.0% 17.7% 18.3% 0.0% Logistic: 7.7% 38.2% 20.5% 14.4% 4.1% 7.7% 1.4% 9.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 20.3% 14.1% 10.2% 1.4% 8.4% 6.6% 3.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212019 TWENTYONE 11/17/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##