* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYONE EP212019 11/17/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 23 22 23 23 27 30 33 36 38 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 23 22 23 23 27 30 33 36 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 8 9 8 10 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 1 3 5 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 198 203 183 192 194 216 232 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 144 142 140 140 144 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 66 65 65 64 66 68 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -29 -26 -37 -43 -46 -49 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 50 44 25 27 32 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 753 758 761 769 781 807 835 884 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.6 104.2 104.7 105.3 105.8 106.9 107.9 109.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 9 8 7 11 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 103.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212019 TWENTYONE 11/17/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.68 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.0% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 14.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 10.1% 4.7% 2.2% 0.5% 4.8% 4.3% 12.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 8.9% 5.4% 0.7% 0.2% 6.2% 6.2% 4.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212019 TWENTYONE 11/17/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##