* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYONE EP212019 11/18/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 23 21 21 23 26 28 29 31 33 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 23 21 21 23 26 28 29 31 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 9 11 16 20 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 2 4 3 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 186 210 207 205 211 228 214 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.8 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 144 144 144 147 151 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 65 64 65 66 67 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -36 -41 -44 -41 -44 -30 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 38 38 34 34 23 27 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 679 685 696 717 740 791 850 917 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.4 105.9 106.4 106.9 108.2 109.7 110.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 6 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 12 11 10 10 14 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 104.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212019 TWENTYONE 11/18/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.58 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.7% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 5.8% 2.6% 1.3% 0.2% 3.1% 1.3% 4.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 8.4% 4.9% 0.4% 0.1% 5.6% 5.0% 1.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212019 TWENTYONE 11/18/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##