* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYONE EP212019 11/18/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 20 19 19 21 25 28 30 32 34 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 20 19 19 21 25 28 30 32 34 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 7 11 15 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 5 3 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 204 210 211 214 226 228 217 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.4 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 138 138 140 147 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 61 63 66 65 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -41 -44 -39 -37 -35 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 29 16 29 31 7 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 688 703 721 738 755 811 901 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.3 105.8 106.2 106.6 107.0 108.1 109.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 9 7 7 8 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. 0. 3. 5. 7. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 105.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212019 TWENTYONE 11/18/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.54 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.18 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.6% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 4.1% 2.1% 0.8% 0.1% 1.2% 0.9% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 4.6% 3.0% 0.3% 0.0% 3.7% 3.8% 1.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212019 TWENTYONE 11/18/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##