* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP022020 05/30/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 38 44 47 52 56 54 53 54 55 54 54 56 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 31 31 30 31 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 24 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 30 32 33 34 35 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 10 14 15 11 3 4 10 13 20 23 23 26 26 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 0 0 -3 -8 -5 0 -2 -2 1 2 0 0 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 105 119 120 139 158 187 196 246 45 65 82 81 93 77 75 67 73 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.2 29.5 28.8 28.7 29.5 29.3 28.8 27.8 27.4 28.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 165 166 159 152 149 158 156 151 141 136 144 154 154 153 153 154 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 4 4 5 4 6 5 6 5 7 6 7 7 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 85 87 87 88 87 87 86 86 83 83 80 80 78 75 72 71 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 10 9 9 11 10 10 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 78 70 58 61 68 83 76 85 89 93 103 96 91 63 68 43 200 MB DIV 115 156 163 159 155 138 154 94 101 75 68 69 61 65 39 24 24 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -3 -2 0 0 4 1 -2 -1 4 2 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 200 144 57 -30 -117 -211 -189 -122 -89 -130 -75 20 106 171 228 257 277 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.6 13.4 14.2 15.0 16.2 16.9 17.3 17.4 17.1 16.5 15.8 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.1 91.0 90.9 90.9 90.9 91.2 92.0 93.2 94.5 95.8 96.9 97.9 98.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 8 8 8 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 23 19 8 8 5 12 5 5 4 10 17 18 21 24 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 34. 36. 39. 41. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -3. -2. -1. -3. -3. -2. -6. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 13. 19. 22. 27. 31. 29. 28. 29. 30. 29. 29. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 91.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022020 INVEST 05/30/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 8.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.47 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 149.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.94 9.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -1.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -6.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.34 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 31.5% 27.4% 0.0% 0.0% 23.4% 25.1% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 51.8% 31.5% 22.1% 11.2% 63.5% 93.1% 62.7% Bayesian: 1.0% 3.3% 3.6% 1.0% 0.2% 2.6% 1.7% 5.9% Consensus: 2.5% 28.9% 20.8% 7.7% 3.8% 29.9% 40.0% 22.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 26.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022020 INVEST 05/30/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##