* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/25/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 90 86 79 69 62 56 51 49 46 43 39 36 34 30 28 V (KT) LAND 100 96 90 86 79 69 62 56 51 49 46 43 40 37 34 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 100 94 87 81 75 65 59 55 51 48 46 44 41 38 35 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 5 8 8 10 18 19 23 22 19 20 27 31 24 23 24 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 4 1 3 7 8 7 11 7 4 6 SHEAR DIR 232 213 241 225 206 232 216 218 219 218 192 198 202 210 225 256 240 SST (C) 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.6 26.1 26.7 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 119 119 121 126 132 139 139 138 142 145 147 145 142 138 142 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 57 55 53 51 46 42 40 39 39 41 43 44 42 45 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 20 21 18 16 16 15 15 15 14 13 12 10 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 1 3 -6 -1 -2 -4 -3 -1 -7 -11 -32 -35 -39 -28 -36 -39 -43 200 MB DIV 22 21 13 -3 6 15 19 7 7 14 28 15 15 11 2 -16 8 700-850 TADV 1 1 4 5 4 7 1 0 2 0 1 3 -2 -4 0 0 4 LAND (KM) 1128 952 780 612 450 202 55 53 182 516 837 1159 1474 1799 2112 2324 2412 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.7 21.4 21.7 22.4 23.0 23.5 24.1 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 144.3 145.9 147.4 149.0 150.5 153.3 156.1 158.9 161.9 165.1 168.2 171.3 174.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 15 15 14 13 14 15 15 14 14 15 14 12 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 17 15 10 20 13 14 11 7 5 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -10. -15. -20. -26. -30. -34. -37. -39. -39. -39. -40. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -14. -21. -30. -38. -44. -49. -51. -54. -57. -60. -64. -66. -70. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.5 144.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/25/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 695.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/25/20 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 58 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##