* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP092020 08/11/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 80 74 67 53 40 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 84 80 74 67 53 40 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 83 77 69 61 47 36 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 8 9 7 9 12 20 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 5 5 3 5 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 294 247 203 230 228 192 198 202 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 24.9 24.5 23.9 23.4 22.7 22.2 22.0 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 113 108 102 96 88 82 81 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.5 -50.5 -50.8 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 -50.5 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 55 55 56 53 45 39 32 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 19 17 14 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 -8 -8 -15 -23 -14 7 -4 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 5 3 -3 4 8 14 0 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 6 9 7 5 1 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 429 464 527 575 607 635 657 717 736 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.3 22.8 23.3 23.7 24.5 25.5 26.5 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.8 115.9 117.0 118.0 119.0 120.2 121.1 122.1 123.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 8 7 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -17. -23. -30. -36. -40. -44. -48. -52. -54. -57. -61. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. -1. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -22. -22. -22. -21. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -11. -18. -32. -45. -56. -67. -72. -75. -79. -81. -84. -87. -90. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 21.7 114.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092020 ELIDA 08/11/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 572.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092020 ELIDA 08/11/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##