* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSEPHINE AL112020 08/16/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 38 36 33 33 32 37 41 44 48 51 53 54 55 56 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 38 36 33 33 32 37 41 44 48 51 53 54 55 56 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 37 35 31 27 25 25 27 31 36 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 30 27 25 29 32 21 21 12 9 11 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 6 5 7 1 1 -1 -3 -2 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 257 259 255 255 280 288 288 206 251 222 258 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.1 29.7 29.3 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 154 157 157 156 159 165 169 170 163 157 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 145 146 145 141 140 145 145 143 137 134 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 10 11 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 50 49 50 55 55 59 59 62 60 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 6 5 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -31 -40 -48 -53 -77 -76 -62 -51 -73 -75 -81 -63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 23 21 37 31 -7 23 22 3 12 17 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 5 0 1 0 5 3 0 1 0 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 413 362 354 370 422 500 632 780 985 946 978 1026 1045 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.5 21.2 21.8 22.3 23.8 25.3 26.7 28.6 29.8 30.5 31.7 33.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.1 63.1 64.2 65.2 66.3 67.9 68.8 69.3 69.0 68.3 67.2 65.7 63.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 9 8 9 8 6 7 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 52 62 74 69 70 33 41 33 34 27 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 26. 28. 28. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -8. -3. 1. 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.8 62.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/16/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.10 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.40 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.01 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 305.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.69 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 3.8% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/16/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/16/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 39 38 36 33 33 32 37 41 44 48 51 53 54 55 56 18HR AGO 40 39 39 38 36 33 33 32 37 41 44 48 51 53 54 55 56 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 33 30 30 29 34 38 41 45 48 50 51 52 53 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 25 25 24 29 33 36 40 43 45 46 47 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT